Friday, July 10, 2009

The Recession: Where do you think we are?

It is saddening to see on-line and real-time buddies and colleagues getting laid off. It's tough not being able to give decent job leads to truly talented people. And it's hard to manage the stress of being left behind, and knowing you are closer to the door with each RIF.

Early to mid-2007 I started to notice the recession well before the government and markets acknowledged there was one. Looking at my division's sales performance over the past 3 years, I have never seen a worse quarter than the one we just finished, and it's traditionally a top sales quarter. Because summers are usually slow, I think we're in for one more bad quarter. But after that I think we are halfway through the recession and that we will have hit bottom. I hope it's a hard V-shaped bounce that spurs recovery, not the wide U-shaped trough of the recession that had us scraping along the bottom for 2 years.

I work for a global company in a division whose nationwide partners sell technology solutions into government, education, health care, finance, telecom, oil/gas, and other commercial sectors. Although my evidence may be too narrow to be scientific, I think it's a valid slice-of-life.

Where do you think we are in the recession--
  • If you were laid off early on, are you working again, still looking -- or were you laid off again?
  • If you are facing a layoff now or the threat of one, do you think you have a better chance of getting a job now than if you had been laid off earlier?
  • If you are laid off, where do you see things for yourself? How is it out there?
  • Whether you are working or are looking for work, what opportunities do you see for yourself now or in the near future?
  • Do you think you will be able to maintain your current income levels?

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